Chapter 02 · Inflation

The base dollar did not keep up. Almost nothing else in a school budget stood still.

Texas does not fund a child as a round number and then forget the rest. It multiplies student weights — poverty, language, disability — against the basic allotment. When that allotment is frozen, every weight is frozen in real terms. House Bill 2 put a $55 sticker on a six-year gap.

2019 statutory allotment

$6,160

Set in House Bill 3 (2019). Held there through multiple sessions while CPI-measured prices rose. Education Code § 48.051 still starts at $6,160.

2025–27 after HB 2

$6,215

$6,160 plus a $55 Guaranteed Yield Increment Adjustment for this biennium. TEA: the BA “is increased from $6,160 to $6,215.”

$7,756 Inflation-adjusted 2019 allotment in 2025, Every Texan (May 2026). Difference: $1,596 per student against $6,160.

$55 Share of that gap covered by GYIA this biennium: about 3.4 cents on the inflation dollar, if you use the $1,596 figure.

$23.76B Comptroller beginning GR-related balance heading into the 2026–27 biennium (January 2025 BRE). Separate rainy-day fund later measured in the high $20 billions.

$32.7B Prior-cycle surplus figure often cited for 2023. The state had room. The allotment still did not become an inflation index.

Every Texan 2024 testimony used $7,546 for 2024. The 2026 Pinching Pennies report uses $7,756 for 2025. BLS CPI math in Statesman reporting (Jan. 2025) put 2019 dollars at about $7,589 in late 2024. Different months, same direction: more than a thousand dollars per student, not fifty-five.

Why +$55 is not “keeping up with inflation”

HB 2 did not replace $6,160 with an inflation-indexed amount. It added a Guaranteed Yield Increment Adjustment (Education Code § 48.2561). For 2025–27 the Legislature set that add-on at $55. In later biennia TEA is to calculate it from the cost of holding the “golden penny” yield at the 96th percentile of wealth — a property-value mechanism, not a CPI mechanism.

IDRA and Every Texan both describe the $55 as a rearrangement of money the state was already obligated to spend on the golden-penny yield, not a full catch-up of 2019 buying power. IDRA: lawmakers needed on the order of $1,300+ per student to meet inflation since 2019. HB 2 also created an Allotment for Basic Costs ($106 per enrolled student) for utilities, insurance, and similar overhead. That is a separate, smaller stream. It is not a substitute for raising the number that drives teacher and librarian salaries through the rest of the formula.

Superintendent comments to KUT in June 2026 stated the Legislature approved only a fraction of what would have been required to keep up with inflationary costs. That is consistent with the TEA and advocacy-group arithmetic. It is also why a balanced AISD budget in June is not proof the wound closed.

What a frozen base does inside AISD

AISD’s student mix is not a general-education average. Weights only pay if the dollar underneath them is real.

AISD student measure (TEA / Tribune, 2026)	Share	Why the allotment matters
Economically disadvantaged	48.4%	Compensatory education weight sits on the basic allotment. A frozen base is a frozen extra.
English learners	29.7%	Bilingual allotment is a multiplier. 2026 cuts still hit bilingual stipends on campuses.
Special education	20.2%	Share up 10 points since 2016. Headcount reported 8,300 → 13,300 (2016–2025, Statesman). Higher need, same eroded base.
Dyslexia identification	22.8%	Up 17.3 points since 2016 — identification grew while the dollar did not.
At risk of dropping out	48.8%	Same campuses that then lost planning time, hubs instead of stops, and partner contracts.

Demographics: Texas Tribune Schools Explorer — support. Special education headcount trend: Statesman, 2026.